The Broke Professional - Optimize Your Financial Life

Is the Market Going to Crash Soon? Who Cares!!??

Update: Well that was a timely post.  Last week, the week of October 8 2018, saw the S&P 500 drop a little over 4%.  While not exactly bear market territory, the pundits are already out in force declaring the end of the bull market and to move your investments into “safe” stocks, such as ones that pay high dividends.  

If you’re investing for the long term, don’t do such a thing.  This past week could very well have been just a blip on the market and the rise could continue for 6 more months.  Or it very well could be the beginning of a bear market.  Either way, if you have a sound investment strategy that takes these ups and downs into account, just stay the course.  

But if the market volatility and decrease in your net worth is making you want to sell a bunch of your investment,s you might need to re-think your overall investment strategy.  Or just hold on for the ride!  

Read this post again.  You’ll thank me later.

This is going to be a quick public service announcement post.

Lately, I’ve been hearing a lot of talk in the media about how the market crash is coming and we need to panic.  The cover of the latest issue of Fortune magazine had a guy with a sign saying “The End is Near”.

I know these types of story lines and images are made to sell ad space and make publishers lots of money.  But here are two indisputable truths when it comes to long term investing:

The stock market WILL go down.

Most people, especially the financial media, look at a stock market decline as an abnormal event that requires you to make some snap investment decisions.  The fact is, market declines are expected and should be assumed when you make your investment plan.  Here is a chart of the historical performance of the S&P 500:

The starting value of the S&P was 250 in 1930.  The most recent valuation had the index at 2800.  That’s more than a 1,000% return.  Not too shabby.  But as you can see in the chart, there were many dips along the way.  It was a very bumpy ride and will most likely continue to be bumpy.

Corrections and recessions are to be expected.  Investors should not be surprised when they occur.

Indisputable truth #2:

For long term investors, market drops SHOULD NOT change behavior.

When there is a market drop or recession, you will see the pundits talk about where to “shelter” your investments.  The safety of bonds will be talked and written about.  And you will see people panic and do very stupid things with their money.  Especially with their retirement accounts.

Market drops should be expected during your investment journey.  If you’re investing in a 401K or IRA which you can’t touch until age 60, there is no reason a recession should spook you when you’re age 40.  If anything, a market drop might compel you to increase your contributions since stocks will be cheaper.

As long as you make a sound investment plan that takes market drops into account, your retirement accounts should be able to weather any recessions, which last 2 years on average.  Stay the course and keep contributing to increase your shares.

No, the end is not near after all.

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Start Tracking Your Net Worth to Reach Financial Freedom

This post contains affiliate links

Everyone has heard the stat about the high failure rate of New Year’s resolutions:

8% of New Year’s resolutions fail

80% fail by February

Greater than 90% failure rate

So if you’ve made a New Year’s resolution for 2018, your chances of achieving it look grim.

The two most common New Year’s resolution goals are health and money.  Which means that there are a lot of failed financial New Year’s resolutions year after year.

My thought is that many people make very vague resolutions.  Goals like “I need to save more” and “We need to spend less on eating out” sound very nice in theory.  But are very hard to put into practice.

Along with being too vague, many resolutions fail because we don’t have an understanding of where we are.  It’s a cliched example, but you need a destination and a starting point in order to have accurate directions.

Making vague resolutions is like picking out a destination without knowing where the starting point is.  So you have no way of knowing if the direction you’re taking is going towards your goal or completely away from it.

You need to know where you stand financially before you can make an effective goal, let alone reach that goal.  I feel the best way to find your financial starting point is not by seeing how much you have in your checking or savings account.  It’s not the equity you have in your home.  And it’s definitely not how flashy your car is.

The best way is finding your net worth.  With the technology available today, calculating your net worth is very simple.  If this is the only financial resolution you make this year, you will be much better off than you were last year.

Why Net Worth Matters

The net worth calculation is very simple:

Assets-Liabilities=Net Worth

There is always discussion about what is considered a liability or an asset.  Some people consider home value an asset.  Some people don’t consider home value since it takes a lot of work to get money out of a home.  The details are endless.

But in general, as asset is something that adds to your wealth while a liability is something that takes away from it.  Common assets include your checking and savings accounts and retirement accounts.  Liabilities include credit card debt and student loans.

So net worth is basically a snapshot of your financial health.  But just like any snapshot, one picture doesn’t tell the story.

A new medical school graduate has little in savings and hundreds of thousands in student loan debt.  That will give him a large negative net worth.  A high school student probably has some spending money but very few liabilities since he lives with his parents.  So he would have a slightly positive net worth.

Does that mean the high school student is more wealthy than the new doctor?  The answer is no because net worth should be used to measure your financial GROWTH rather than a static number that looks at your wealth.  In 10 years time, the new doctor will likely have a net worth light years ahead of the high school kid.

So the key to wealth creation is to grow your net worth over time and grow it quickly.

My Net Worth Tracking Strategy

(Above is a screenshot of the sleek Personal Capital dashboard.  It gives you a quick glance at your net worth)

There are so many different opinions about how often you should track your net worth.  Some say every month (some people even track it every day!).  While others say once a year is enough.  The key is to find a pace you’re comfortable with and keep it consistent.

Personally, I check my net worth every quarter.  I actually enjoy checking up on my accounts and seeing how they’ve changed.  It also allow me to make sure there’s no fraud or any funny business going on in any of my accounts.

And doing it quarterly is enough time to see if new strategies I’ve implemented are actually making a difference.  Plus, most companies operate in quarterly statements so there must be some wisdom in it.

As far as what high tech tools I use, an Excel spreadsheet and a Word document are my weapons of choice.  I use the Excel document to help me calculate my net worth and I record the values over time in my Word document.  Easy peasy.

But one piece of technology that helps check my work and give me more insight into my net worth and retirement is Personal Capital.  I’ve been using it for years to view my net worth and they have been getting better over time.

All you need to do is connect your various accounts and Personal Capital will monitor them.  They can’t make any transactions so there is no need to worry about security.  They simply monitor your account value and have your net worth displayed nicely in graph form.

Which is great since net worth growth is the true measure of financial wellness.  Physically seeing it as a graph really drives it home.

Other cool features of Personal Capital are the Investment Checkup and Retirement Fee analyzer tools.  They can analyze the holdings in your investment accounts and tell you where you may be over or underweight.  And they will also check the fees in your accounts so you can make sure you’re not paying too much.

And it’s all free.  There is an option to talk to a real financial adviser for a fee but that’s completely up to you.  Most of the powerful features of the program are no cost.

Conclusion

Deciding to grow your net worth is the best thing you can do to turn your financial life around.  Thinking in terms of net worth rather than just making and spending more money will allow you to see your finances in a whole new way.

Suddenly, paying a huge monthly bill for that fancy luxury car when a regular old Toyota will do just fine doesn’t seem that enticing.  A decision like that can keep your net worth from growing the way you would like.  Thinking in terms of net worth rather than just focusing on your checking account is the real way to get wealthy.

Tracking your net worth consistently with Personal Capital is an excellent way to start the journey towards real wealth.

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